There are several plans on the one hand, concerning improvement of the regional models, and on the other hand, regarding application and interpretation of the RCM results for the impact studies. Hereafter, the most important plans are briefly summarised:
- One essential objective is to complete an ensemble evaluation of the regional climate models available in Hungary (ALADIN-Climate, PRECIS, RegCM, and REMO). The projections of the four climate models are evaluated together using ensemble techniques in order to quantify not only the possible climate change over Hungary, but also the related uncertainties. The work is realised in co-operation with Eötvös Loránd University. The first results of these efforts provided basis for the official summary (edited in 2010) about the regional climate change over Hungary (in Hungarian).
- It is planned to extend and enhance the available model experiments with emphasis on the following aspects:
- Preparation of the 10 km resolution version of the REMO model in a new model domain and its integration for the period of 1951-2100.
- Determination of the optimal domain for ALADIN-Climate and rerun of the 10 km integration (most probably with an updated model version).
- The liaison with the public and the contact with experts on impact studies are essential ingredients of our work, therefore, we would like to extend further those activities, which are in connection with these user groups. We have to emphasise that future evolution of the climate system can be only determined with the help and use of climate models and impact studies should be constructed on the outputs of those models (Fig. 1). We are convinced that the successful adaptation work should be based exclusively on results taking the climate model outputs into account. We are going to compile a questionnaire (in Hungarian) in order to see what the common knowledge is with respect to the climate change and what the frequent misinterpretations are.
Figure 1: Schematic flow-chart about applicability of regional climate model outputs
for climate impact studies
Last update: 1st April 2011.