2020. augusztus 13. csütörtök
IDŐJÁRÁS - OMSZ angol nyelvű folyóirat

Vol. 124, No. 1 * January - March 2020

Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service

letöltés [pdf: 24504 KB]
Evaluation of EURO-CORDEX and Med-CORDEX precipitation simulations for the Carpathian Region: Bias corrected data and projected changes
Csaba Zsolt Torma, Anna Kis, and Rita Pongrácz
 PDF (4953 KB)   |   Abstract

This study aims to give a brief overview of an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations with and without bias correction for daily precipitation for the Carpathian Region located in Central/Eastern Europe. Within the international initiative called the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), EURO-CORDEX and Med-CORDEX provide RCM simulations targeting Europe as a whole or in a part at the grid resolutions of 0.44° (~50 km) and 0.11° (~12 km). The ensemble of RCMs provides a huge amount of data, which are, however, prone to biases compared to high-resolution observations. First, the bias correction of the daily precipitation output of EURO-CORDEX and Med‑CORDEX RCM ensemble at a common 0.11° × 0.11° horizontal grid resolution is performed based on the high-resolution, high-quality observational dataset CARPATCLIM. The region covered by the CARPATCLIM dataset can be considered as the Carpathian Region, for which the RCM ensemble (consisting of six members in total at 0.11° resolution) of a historical period (1976−2005) and under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) over two future time slices (2021−2050 and 2070−2099) are assessed. Percentile-based bias correction method was used in order to adjust systematic biases in all simulated precipitation fields. The present study focuses on different precipitation climate indices derived from high-resolution RCM outputs over the entire Carpathian Region and specifically two sub-regions representing high- and lowlands within the target region. The analyzed indices are as follows: the frequency of rainy days (RR1, days with a total rainfall of at least 1 mm), heavy precipitation days (RR10, days with a total rainfall of at least 10 mm), highest daily precipitation (RX1), maximum consecutive dry periods (CDD, the duration of the longest period with < 1 mm total daily precipitation), maximum consecutive wet periods (CWD, the duration of the longest period with > 1 mm total daily precipitation). Our results indicate that both the spatial distribution and magnitude of mean changes are similar to those found in previous works based on ENSEMBLES project simulations using a different greenhouse gas emission scenario. Furthermore, the present study also aims to introduce a high-resolution bias-corrected precipitation database, which can serve as input for climate change impact and adaptation studies to be carried out for the Carpathian Region and to provide important information to stakeholders and decision makers at local/regional/national levels.

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