2020. augusztus 13. csütörtök
IDŐJÁRÁS - OMSZ angol nyelvű folyóirat

Vol. 124, No. 2 * April - June 2020

Quarterly Journal of Hunarian Meteorological Service

Special issue: Climate change and adaptation
Guest Editor: Rita Pongrácz

letöltés [pdf: 4182 KB]
Estimation of agro-ecosystem services using biogeochemical models
Klára Pokovai, Roland Hollós, Emese Bottyán, Anna Kis, Tibor Marton, Rita Pongrácz, László Pásztor, Dóra Hidy, Zoltán Barcza, and Nándor Fodor
 PDF (1408 KB)   |   Abstract

Agro-ecosystem services are the various benefits (e.g., crop yield) that people freely obtain from the properly functioning agricultural lands. The estimated changes in climatic conditions including increasing temperature, with particular attention to the summer means, together with the expected changes in the temporal precipitation distribution pose enormous challenge to the agriculture. Currently, dynamic system models are most frequently used tools that are capable of estimating the prospective effects of climate change on agro-ecosystems. A deterministic biogeochemical model is presented that is developed by Hungarian scientists within the framework of the AgroMo project. The main goal of the AgroMo project is to develop climate-smart strategies in order to mitigate the effect of potential future hazards in the context of climate change by 1) creating a complex, state-of-the-art experimental platform; 2) producing ten new, 0.1° spatial resolution climate scenarios based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios; 3) developing an integrated assessment and modeling framework that is capable of simulating every major land use types; 4) analyzing/simulating a great number of adaptation strategies that can be used to support decision makers. Based on the preliminary simulation results, climate change will most likely expose significant negative impact on the spring sown crops in Hungary. Although, the yield losses could be avoided with irrigation or could be mitigated with earlier sowing, the role of winter crops is likely to become more significant in Hungary in the future.

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